Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has expressed confidence that Ghana’s headline inflation rate will remain below 5 percent by the end of 2026, despite emerging risks from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Minister’s assurance follows a slight setback in Ghana’s disinflation trend, which saw headline inflation rise to 3.4 percent in April from 3.2 percent in March. This increase broke a 15-month streak of consecutive declines.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Dr. Forson acknowledged that the Middle Eastern conflict poses clear risks to the domestic inflation outlook, particularly through elevated supply chain costs and rising prices for petroleum and fertilizer.
“The conflict poses challenges in terms of petroleum product prices and, most importantly, fertiliser costs and supply chains. Availability is not a concern to us at the moment. The challenge has to do with price increases,” he said.
However, Dr. Forson emphasized that Ghana remains well-insulated against these external shocks due to robust foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold production, and favorable international commodity prices. He added that the lack of fuel subsidies relieves fiscal pressure while reserves ensure adequate foreign exchange to cover critical imports.
“The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. We have also built significant reserves,” he stated.
He further explained that expanding gold output and strong international gold pricing are reinforcing the nation’s economic resilience.
“Our gold production is going up and gold prices remain high. Ghana is therefore in a comfortable position to withstand these shocks,” he noted.
While conceding that inflation may face upward pressures over the coming months, Dr. Forson maintained that any increase would be modest and highly manageable.
“We may see some pressure on inflation. It is currently around 3.4 percent, but I still believe we will be better off and that inflation will not exceed 5 percent by the end of the year,” he said.
The Finance Minister also cited positive developments in Ghana’s export sector as a stabilizing factor for the inflation outlook, noting that cocoa prices are recovering from a recent dip, while crude oil exports continue to generate steady revenue.
“Cocoa prices have started going up again. We are also an oil-exporting country, so we continue to earn foreign exchange from our major exports,” he explained.